McDonald’s on Monday reported disappointing quarterly revenue, dragged down by weaker-than-expected sales at its U.S. restaurants following an E. coli outbreak just weeks into the quarter.
But shares of the company rose more than 4% in morning trading as executives predicted sales would improve in 2025.
Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Net sales of $6.39 billion were roughly flat compared with the year-ago period. The company’s overall same-store sales growth of 0.4% outperformed Wall Street’s expectations of same-store sales declines of 1%, according to StreetAccount estimates.
But McDonald’s U.S. business reported a steeper-than-expected drop in its same-store sales. Same-store sales at the company’s domestic restaurants fell 1.4% in the quarter; Wall Street was projecting same-store sales declines of 0.6%.
McDonald’s said traffic was slightly positive, but customers spent less than usual during the quarter. Over the summer, the chain rolled out a $5 combo meal to bring back price-conscious diners and reverse sluggish sales. The strategy worked, helping McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales tick up in the third quarter.
However, analysts have warned that value meals only work if customers also add menu items that aren’t discounted to their orders. McDonald’s executives downplayed those concerns Monday, saying the average check on the $5 meal deal is more than $10.
The biggest hit to McDonald’s U.S. sales came in late October, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention linked a fatal E. coli outbreak to its Quarter Pounder burgers. McDonald’s switched suppliers for its slivered onions, the ingredient fingered as the likely culprit for the outbreak. In early December, the CDC declared the outbreak officially over.
However, in the days following the news of the outbreak, traffic at McDonald’s U.S. restaurants fell steeply, particularly in the states affected.
U.S. sales hit their nadir in early November, but began rising again after that. In particular, demand for the Quarter Pounder, a popular core menu item with high margins, fell quickly in the wake of the crisis.
McDonald’s expects its U.S. sales to recover by the beginning of the second quarter, executives said.
“I think right now what we’re seeing is that the E. coli impact is now just localized to the areas that had the biggest impact,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said on the company’s conference call. “So think about that as sort of the Rocky Mountain region that was really the epicenter of the issue.”
The company hopes value deals, along with key menu additions, will help to fuel the recovery this year. In 2025, the burger chain plans to bring back its popular snack wraps, which vanished from menus during pandemic lockdowns, and to introduce a new chicken strip menu item.
Outside the U.S., sales were stronger. Both of McDonald’s international divisions reported same-store sales increases, bolstering the company’s overall performance.
The company’s international developmental licensed markets segment, which includes the Middle East and Japan, reported same-store sales growth of 4.1%.
McDonald’s international operated markets division, which includes some of its biggest markets, reported same-store sales growth of 0.1%. The company said most markets reported same-store sales increases, but the United Kingdom and some other markets saw same-store sales shrink in the quarter. One bright spot was France, which saw its same-store sales turn positive during the quarter after months of weak demand.
McDonald’s reported fourth-quarter net income of $2.02 billion, or $2.80 per share, down from $2.04 billion, or $2.80 per share, a year earlier.
Excluding gains tied to the sale of its South Korean business, transaction costs for buying its Israeli franchise and other items, McDonald’s earned $2.83 per share.
Looking to 2025, the first quarter is expected to be the low point for McDonald’s same-store sales, CFO Ian Borden said, citing a weak start to the year in the U.S., among other factors. Winter storms and wildfires in California weighed on restaurant traffic across the industry in January.
For the full year, McDonald’s plans to open roughly 2,200 restaurants. About a quarter of those locations will be in the U.S. and its international operated markets. The rest will be in the company’s international developmental licensed markets, including about 1,000 new restaurants in China.
Including its investments in restaurant openings, McDonald’s plans to spend between $3 billion and $3.2 billion this year on capital expenditures.
The company is also projecting a headwind of 20 cents to 30 cents per share to its full-year earnings due to foreign currency exchange rates.